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Forecasting Long Term ED Demand

Forecasting Long Term Emergency Department Demand

Data

Data Sources

Exploration

Linear Models
Mixed Linear Model
Tree-based models
Separating Capacity and Utility

Model Development

Stacked Architecture
Developing the Capacity Model
Developing the Population Health Model
Combined Population Health and Service Capacity Model

Forecasting Future ED Demand

Predicting attendances next year
Forecasting Future ED Demand
Future demand at CCG level

Imputation

Imputing missing data
KNN imputation
Model performance with imputed data

Additional analysis

Outlier analysis

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By Charlotte James
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